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Thought this would be a great place to preserve this - this is the election analysis I wrote in the early morning hours of November 3rd.
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As some of you know, I crunched swing state numbers all night and the Jen M election desk has not gotten a state wrong yet. So here's my analysis of what happened yesterday in America and where the Kerry campaign went oh so wrong...
1) The Kerry campaign severely underestimated how conservative this country still is. The numbers on the gay marriage ammendments bear this out.
2) The Kerry campaign and the pollsters severely overestimated the youth vote (18 - 25). Stats show they turned out in the same numbers as in 2000.
3) Getting in registration cards means nothing as far as who will actually show up to vote. Farming your GOTV activities leads to a lot of problems, including no follow up. The RNC and GOP voter turnout was an astounding success - better than hoped for. In some parts of Florida there was a 40% increase in Republican turnout, which goes to show you that when the pubbies get their ass in gear, they are second to none in organization. It was the best ground game I've ever seen and the turnaround from the mess in the 90's was nothing short of amazing.
4) Anger does not equal votes. Having a candidate people are not excited to vote for doesn't turn out the vote like a candidate people are excited for regardless of how much you hate the other guy.
5) The Kerry camp made a fatal error going to the Iraq issue in the final week, should have focused on the domestic.
6) "Global Test"
7) "reporting for duty"
8) nitpicking is not a plan, and if you have a plan, it's nice to let people know what it is so they have some reason to want to vote for you.
9) Teresa Heinz Kerry - sometimes the spouse does matter. It will be interesting if it's ever known how many votes she may or may not have cost her husband.
10) The election followed almost the same lines as 2000, with a slightly higher turnout overall, except the Republicans were out in force. They don't call us "broken glass Republicans" for nothing.
11) Winning the debates means nothing if you don't show any conviction behind what you said. Fancy talk is just that if there's no there there.
I'm sure I'll think of more as the day goes on and I start seeing some more hard stats and I have a little more caffiene in me, but here's my final shot for now.
Winners...
1)GWB of course! Congratulations to the President 2)Internet bloggers - keeping the MSM on it's toes 3)FOX News - by the amount of times they ticked me off this election, I'd say they are pretty fair and balanced 4)Swift Vets, POWs, and all Vets in general - consider this the parade you so greatly deserved and were so horribly denied. You came back and served your country well again. My gratitude knows no bounds. God Bless you.
Losers... 1) The Mainstream Media - got caught with it's pants down and showed everyone once and for all that the logo on your undies says "liberal" 2) The Democrat Party - lost House seats, Senate seats, and the Presidency. Time for some soul searching and maybe some overhauling of your primary system. You rode the wrong horse. Lieberman probably would have won, or you should have stuck with Dean. At least both of them had conviction even though they are polar opposites on many issues. 3) John Edwards - no platform for the public stage now that his Senate seat is gone 4) Exit pollsters - faulty numbers cause the stock market to tank amost 100 points on false Kerry information. Might want to readjust the models there boys.
and two more winners you might not have though of... 1) The Clintons - once again showing they are the force to be reckoned with in the DNC. 2) Susan Estrich - will probably no longer be known as running the most inept campaign ever (she ran the Dukkakis campaign for those of you who don't know)
ETA:
and the biggest loser of the night?
Tom Daschle - couldn't have happened to a nicer obstructionist. I'm sure he's deeply saddened.
George Soros - money can't buy everything, especially an American election.
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May 2006 |
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